Seven Months Up: Gold's Longest Winning Run Since 1973

5 min read

A month ago gold had just suffered its sharpest one-day fall since 1983. Many commentators were quick to call the end of the run. February gave its answer. Gold recovered steadily, finished the month around 6.5% higher and recorded its seventh monthly gain in a row. That is the longest winning streak since 1973. The reasons behind it say a great deal about the state of money today.

From reset to recovery

In the first days of February gold dipped again, still shaking off the forced selling that followed Kevin Warsh's nomination to lead the Federal Reserve. We covered that episode in Gold's January: A Record and a Sharp Reset. The traders who had borrowed to chase the price were flushed out in a matter of days. What remained were buyers with longer horizons.

That clear-out matters more than it might seem. A market driven by borrowed money can rise fast but is fragile, because a small fall forces many holders to sell at once. Once that money has gone, the price rests with people who own their gold outright and feel no pressure to sell. A recovery built on those buyers tends to be steadier, which is what February looked like.

They did not wait long. By 27 February gold had recovered much of the ground lost in late January. Over the past seven months the price has risen by roughly 58%. In Britain the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in early February, with four of its nine members voting for a cut. Cash savers were offered no relief from the slow erosion of their money.

A vote that close tells its own story. Almost half the committee wanted lower rates already. For anyone relying on interest from savings, the direction of travel is clear enough, which is a good reason to think carefully about where savings are kept.

The court that changed the trade war

The biggest economic story of the month came from Washington. On 20 February the US Supreme Court ruled by six votes to three that the emergency powers law used to impose sweeping tariffs did not give the President that authority. The power to tax imports, the Court said, rests with Congress.

The White House responded quickly. A new 10% tariff on imports from every country was announced under a different law, taking effect on 24 February and limited to 150 days. We wrote a year ago about tariffs, trade wars and the oldest safe haven. The legal battle has changed. The uncertainty for businesses and savers has not.

A tariff is a tax on goods coming into a country, paid when they cross the border. Businesses that import parts or products face higher costs. Some of those costs can reach shoppers through higher prices. A 150-day limit also means the question will return by the summer. For firms trying to plan ahead, that kind of uncertainty is a cost in itself.

Tension that turned into conflict

Through February, talks between the United States and Iran over its nuclear programme dragged on without a clear result. On the final day of the month that uncertainty turned into conflict, when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. When markets reopened on Monday 2 March, gold rose more than 2% to a one-month high.

War is never a reason to celebrate a rising price. But it reminds savers why central banks and private buyers alike hold an asset that sits outside every government and every banking system. Gold does not depend on any treaty or any court ruling. Its value does not rest on anyone keeping their word.

Why 1973 is the right comparison

The last streak of this length came at a telling moment. In August 1971 the United States closed the window through which foreign governments could swap dollars for gold. By early 1973 the world's major currencies were floating freely, backed by nothing but the word of the governments that issued them. Gold rose month after month as savers adjusted to money with no anchor.

The background was money growing faster than the economy. Research based on the Nixon White House tapes shows how hard the President pressed the Federal Reserve for easier money ahead of the 1972 election. American consumer prices rose 3.3% in 1971 and 3.6% in 1972, held down for a time by wage and price controls introduced in August 1971. As those controls were lifted in stages during 1973, inflation jumped to 9.6%. It reached 11.8% in 1974.

The Fed eventually pushed its key rate up to 9.71% by November 1973 and a recession followed, running until March 1975. Savers who held cash through that period saw its buying power shrink fast. Those who held gold had something whose value did not depend on any government's promise.

The parallel today is not exact. But the theme is familiar. Large deficits, pressure on central banks, legal fights over who controls economic policy and a new war in the Middle East. Each of these weakens confidence in paper money a little more. Gold's long winning run is a measure of that lost confidence rather than a sign of excitement.

What a streak does and does not tell you

Seven straight months of gains is a statistic, not a forecast. Gold will have losing months again, as it always has. January showed how fast the price can move in both directions. A streak is best read as evidence of a trend. It is not a timetable for the next move.

What it does tell you is who is buying. Central banks added 863 tonnes in 2025 according to the World Gold Council. Private savers have joined them. In Britain, many choose UK legal tender gold coins such as the Britannia and the Sovereign, which are exempt from Capital Gains Tax for UK residents. Fine gold held outright owes nothing to any court, treasury or central bank.

The scale of central bank holdings shows how seriously the institutions behind paper money take gold. According to the European Central Bank, gold made up about 20% of global official reserves at the end of 2024, against 16% for the euro. Official holdings stood at around 36,000 tonnes, close to the peak of roughly 38,000 tonnes last seen in the mid-1960s.

What it means for British savers

For a saver in Britain, the lessons of the last seven months are less about the price and more about the reasons behind it. Almost half of the Bank of England's rate setters already want lower rates. Trade rules can change overnight through a court ruling or a new order from the White House. Conflict can flare with little warning. None of these is within any saver's control.

What is within your control is the mix of what you hold. Cash in the bank is a claim on a currency managed by policymakers. Gold coins held outright are a physical asset that sits outside that system. Many of our customers choose to build a holding slowly over time, so no single month's price matters too much. That approach suits a market that can rise for seven months in a row and still fall sharply in a single day.

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If you would like to talk it through, call a specialist on 0208 064 0076, Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm, or book a call at a time that suits you.

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Sources

This article is for information only. The value of gold can go down as well as up.

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Gold Insights are independent articles, researched and written by our own team at Gold Tier Advisory.